Well, Mussolini was the inspiration for many people. Including Hitler, but Hitler died like a scrub in the trenches. To be honest, I don't exactly know what happened to him. I just think he never managed to round up as much support as he did in the 1920s as he did in the real world. So he had a small radical political party at most, that never did March on Rome. (That would also make Italy probably the only nation with a Fascist party, just very small.)

So the influence could still be there unless we also go with the idea where that bald nerd got shot in the trenches up in the Alps.

On the topic of Portugal's pretty hefty colonial empire, I don't know that much about the lore yet to give an answer there.