The best strategy I've always found is to say that you'll commit suicide if your OC dies or argue with the GM over and over again.

Actual answer, it's complicated. You get different GMs with different ideas of what's "realistically" surviveable. Some might not even care and let you do whatever you want. For rps that follow a somewhat "realistic" mindset, the basic goal of any plan should be for it to end with you surviving. This means, if the plan most likely to succeed is also the most deadly to your person, it's going to likely end with you dying. You should go with a plan that has at least a small chance of succeeding with least chance of death, always. It's better to roll the dice 5,000 times than to roll the dice once with huge stakes, if your goal is survival. You should also opt to take any plan you see that has absolutely no chance of failure.

Then again, sometimes you have to roll the dice to succeed in very dangerous situations. So it's a crapshoot, really. Your best bet is to [i]become[/i] game theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_theory.