Boerd. It isn't a typo, it's a reflection of my Afrikaner heritage. 

I suspect if I was going to catch anyone, I would catch Faulty's guy. The Victual Brothers ordinarily steer clear of the League, as they are competent sailors with a large navy. Coupled with the fact that nobody knows the Brothers are coming in great force for the leaders, I might make it. In your case, your weak navy and chance of overland travel means the Brethren will only commit a small force covering the most direct route that isn't pirated heavily. Paradoxically if you went the normal route your odds are better, and even better if you go a detour.