I'm sure there'd be some refugees already. Maybe not so many that they have to seek refuge outside of Europe though. There are plenty of other places in Europe they can go to avoid the war. Unless they fear getting snatched off the street and be given a rifle to go fight. In which case, maybe they would be seeking refuge outside of Europe. Point is though, I'm sure there already are some refugees, or people who aren't so much refugees as much as they're just concerned people who are trying to get away from the war before it even reaches them.