[quote=@Cyclone]
<Snipped quote by Willy Vereb>

Does this switch it to three in our favor and two for the islands? 

I was joking with my last post, but if you feel this way then we could actually go with the trade dispute
[/quote]I thought I was the second person who voted for trade dispute.
Yeah, that sounds like a more conservative start.
Alternatively you can have the bombing incident escalating the tension but not quite resulting in anything close to a war.
Then the trade dispute which further worsens the relations.
Especially since I deliberately plan to ignore the embargo and approach Avaria via an air route from the north.