[quote=Theodorable]
But how will the proverbial Cold War have started in the first place?
[/quote]

I'd say before the Crayvens fell into civil war they'd have mostly been isolationist and seen as inconsequential although not a strategically sound target for an invasion. After the civil war and the destruction that came from it however, the Graal would indeed have taken notice of the capabilities of the Crayvens, but the Crayvens themselves would have taken interest in foreign affair, under the idea that inaction could lead to such a thing as a foreign power placing itself in a position to threaten the Crayvens which could, again, require to unleash Zuhlo.

So rather than watch a problem growing until it became impossible to manage, Crayven decided to adopt a doctrine of containment, allying itself with other minor powers and backing resistance and independence groups as long as they followed set Crayven principles such as democracy and equality, establishing both a buffer and trying to make the idea of a war seeming as too costly to be manageable and thus get peace even if it was through intimidation.

I'd say while the sphere of influence of the Crayvens would be larger than the Graal, it would be much less stable, many nations doubting of the willingness of the alliance to go to war as a whole if one of their members was attacked plus internal problems with adopting the policies of the Crayvens regarding equality in some nations, some people believing that even if it meant being a client state of the Graal as long as they conceded things like nobility birth rights then it was better than the democracy Crayvens endorsed.

Most likely the Crayvens would be extremely willing to keep wars small scale and by proxy if they cannot be avoided rather than creating a large one. The crayvens themselves not knowing if they'd actually defend their individual allies if the Graal were to declare a limited war.