[quote=@Shoryu Magami]
As for the math itself, I mostly had the numbers you brought up in my head anyway. Realistically, in the third round each person who isn't the murderer has a 50% chance of getting it right if they point the finger since you can't vote for yourself -- this was something I brought up pages back. 
[/quote]

Oh I actually didn't see this.

While each player has a 50% chance of getting it right, that doesn't equate to a 50% chance of punishing the killer on the third round. Because BOTH spotless players have to select the killer. So depending on how you perceive it, it can be 33% (1 out of 3 possible outcomes) or 25% (nobody votes the killer, only spotless #1 votes the killer, only spotless #2 votes the killer, both spotless vote the killer)