[quote=@System]
<Snipped quote by Threads of Fate>

What factors have you accounted for to make your estimations?
[/quote]

For the zero percent, it's the Codex all splitting to one of the sides or flat out joining Nyarlathotep. Both have reasonably low probabilities, but they exist. Beyond that, I feel like I've explained it already. I can repeat if you'd like.