It happened faster than anybody expected. 

On November 21st 2004, the run-off round in Ukraine’s Presidential election took place between Viktor Yushchenko, who found his support in the western part of the country, and Viktor Yanukovych, whose base was in the East and South. University courses can be dedicated to the history behind this division, but the place for that is not here. This chapter in that history begins as Yanukovych is declared the winner of this election amidst allegations of fraud, intimidation, and worse. Protests that would become known as the ‘Orange Revolution’ start the day after, and Yushchenko legally challenges the results.

Our Point of Divergence is December 3rd. The Ukrainian Supreme Court assents to the results, causing the protests of hundreds of thousands to become riots. President Kuchma, Prime Minister Yanukovych, and their allies flee Kiev where Yushchenko is later confirmed as president. Hardliners in Yanukovych’s camp, led by Viktor Medvedchuk, convince him to set up a provisional government in Kharkov. A series of cities and oblasts, as well as army units in the South and East of the country, side with the Kharkov government. By January, both candidates have been inaugurated as presidents of rival governments. As talks to heal the rift break down, a civil war is imminent.

[center][img]https://i.imgur.com/ElWS09d.jpg[/img]
[i]Approximate ceasefire lines, April-August 2005[/i][/center]

Neither government could count on the army to takes its side. As conflict loomed, the vast majority of its personnel took the first bus or train home and a decade and a half of neglect has left most of its vehicles out of working order. Instead, militias were organised from law enforcement, nationalist parties, and workers’ unions, sometimes led by a core of officer and soldiers that remained on their posts. In the bitter cold and sea of mud, it was these militias that traded blows in the Dnieper Basin. Halfway through April, The Kiev government stopped Kharkov-aligned militias from advancing beyond Kirovograd and took Mykolaiv, placing the city of Odessa under partial blockade. A stalemate ensued and a ceasefire signed, and both governments would continue negotiations.

By August, however frustration with the deadlock has built up on both sides. The ceasefire has given both sides the opportunity to repair a significant number of vehicles, replenish and reform their militias into a semi-regular army, and foreign volunteers and material support arrived to both sides. In order to strengthen its position at the table, the Kharkov government opts to make another play while the season still allows for it. Forces that have massed in the centre of the country launch a dual offensive. One towards Pervomaisk, and another ours towards Cherkasy.

The success of Operation Jupiter, as the offensive aimed at Cherkasy is named, would cut off the railroad from Kiev to Mykolaiv, significantly strengthen the position of pro-Kharkov forces in the centre of the country, and take them closer to Kiev. Phase I of the offensive calls for the capture of the railway town of Smila…