The Azura offensive begins before the formations are ready. Two of the battlespheres and their subsidiary formations break orbit early which sets off a cascading rush of improperly prepared segments of the line. It is an arrogant and high handed approach, one which has already assumed victory is inevitable and so what is at stake is claiming a share of the glory.

[Friction roll: 4. Indecisive outcome]

Despite this, twenty percent of the fleet does wind up hanging back in Tanshin III orbit. From intercepted signals chatter - accusations of cowardice and threats of retribution - this seems less like a deliberate strategic reserve and more like a lack of offensive morale. This does result in the mining operations having a guard which results in calling off the destroyer offensive before committing.

[Friction roll: 2. Advantage to the Azura] 

The Aotrs skirmishers at the edge of the Azura fleet find it difficult to get much work done. When threatened the corvettes are withdrawn to the centre of the formation, with heavily armoured destroyers acting as pickets. For a period the Azura ships simply endure the barrage of Aotrs fire - when a sphere is struck it rotates its facing so it is always presenting an undamaged section of armour towards its opponent and emergency repairs can be conducted on the exterior side. When damage mounts up the crippled ship is withdrawn into the centre of the formation for more extensive repairs, sometimes involving one damaged ship 'eating' another one, absorbing its materials to regrow its own. Adding to the defense, squadrons of fighters are acting in intercept roles to assist bringing down missiles before they connect.

A slow, methodical operational tempo has advantages and disadvantages against the Azura. It is likely that fatigue favours the Aotrs in the long term but low intensity operations give the Azura reactors a chance to recharge to full power between each engagement. That results in them being able to apply effective long range fire on the Aotrs fleet each time it closes to weapons range. Combined with effective repair and defensive operations, the overall effect is that the Aotrs are getting the worse of this pattern of engagement.

The assumption being made is clearly one of invincibility. These early successes are boosting Azura confidence to the point where their formations are becoming even more staggered and dedicated to offensive pursuit. 

[Friction roll: 1. Advantage to the Azura]

Jamming the Azura ships makes a disappointingly small difference. Their doctrine, training and organization all assumes conditions of total communications blackout and signals are sent as often through enormous electrical banners projected against the side of their ships like signal flags of old. The idea of blocking those visual signals through an elemental shadow field is a sound one and would likely work well but it is unclear what benefit it would gain. Even the Azura command ships seem to have only a tenuous grip over the decentralized violence of the fleet. Everything is happening on such a chaotic, individualized level that it is not clear what difference even effective jamming would make. It might have a role in a future engagement as part of a more coherent battleplan.

[Friction roll: 4. Indecisive outcome.]

Ultimately, neither fleet is able to gain an edge in this early positioning. The Azura offensive operation has spread out massively over the system, their defensive battle-ball broken as individual formations move in pursuit of Aotrs attack group ships. Unfortunately the core of the Azura battlegroup has locked a massive precognition spell onto the reserve elements of the Aotrs fleet. They are keeping their reactors fully charged, ready to perform a combat hyperspeed jump in response to any commitment against a dispersed fleet element.

At this stage of the battle, the Aotrs are getting the worse of the direct engagements. Three things are currently in the Aotrs favour. Firstly, Azura fuel and ammunition is depleting at a faster rate than Aotrs reserves; more of their ships are operating at combat speed and their technology has high resource demands. Secondly, the Azura are evidently not familiar with fighting undead, and will accumulate battle fatigue faster than their opponents. Thirdly, the Azura are clearly falling prey to victory disease, wherein they assume that their enemy are inferiors that do not need to be respected.

The Azura offensive has not yet culminated, but it will soon at which point they will be forced to retire back to the safety of Tanshin III to re-arm. The most vulnerable phase will be the withdrawal itself, but at this stage they are likely to be making that withdrawal in an organized manner and in good order.