<Snipped quote by Dinh AaronMk>
Understandable. As for Muhammad Ali's Egypt, I was thinking a sudden crash in cotton prices will lead to a revolution, but I don't know how to write the exact details of that.
In the case of a cotton crash: you may not really see it "crash" for a while. Especially in the case like a agricultural commodity where it has to be seeded, crown, and harvested before going to market, and that middle stage takes a long while. It'd be a "crash" that really manifests in a year and the natural response for Egypt would have to be either cut their loses and stop or more naturally go in harder to produce more cotton to make up for the losses and aggravate the cotton crash further. The later is more natural because the government already owns all the arable land, at least in Egypt, and order more cotton grown in place of essential agricultural goods would be very easy to do. And with those revenues probably buy food stuff abroad to compensate for the lack of grain production at home. Of course, the effect of having to spike production to compensate for losses also helps repress cotton prices and maintain the recession and raise costs on the state, that will have to take out loans to compensate for that season of production. By the next, if Muhammad Ali doesn't go on some grand expedition to acquire more land to extract more treasure from he will have to produce more cotton in already depressed economy to also import more food and also pay the interests.
The likely result isn't a revolution at home in Egypt where the peasants have already long lost their land, revolted, and lost, and are kept moving around as army and corvée labor, but a default of the Egyptian economy and the western banks he had to take loans from moving in to at least do some minimal financial administration to extract the funds for the projects similar to the OPDA
or The Veiled Protectorate
, except if not the British then the French or someone.
And given the state of the RP right now, you're not likely to get there.