Who is the Murderer? {Game}

[Dinh AaronMk]

@Dinh AaronMk Shoryu wanted to make sure you got this mention since the site goofed the original.

But anywho...

I KNEW IT! My first guess was right!

@Ailyn Evensen

ok

[Shoryu Magami]

what does suss mean; are you giving me a compliment? if so, thanks!

@Luna_Maria

Suss = suspicious. You're more active in the game usually, but in this particular one you were pretty quiet, which would lead some people - such as myself if I had been playing - to think it might be you. The other reason for the quiet behaviour could easily have been due to some of your actions getting you eliminated too quickly in previous games.

[Luna_Maria]

oic

FUK

thanks for telling me

[Pudding]

@Luna_Maria
This is why I always play each game the same way. Otherwise it's too obvious for somebody like to Sho to realize I'm being shifty.

[Luna_Maria]

well, i've noticed some things about me. when it gets important, i realize that i'm more likely to become a scared coward.
also when it gets important, i tend to play worse.

[Shoryu Magami]

@Pudding
You can't hide from me. I see all.

@Luna_Maria
Pressure is a big cause of difficulty for a lot of people, so you're not alone in that sense.

[Luna_Maria]

thanks! i play bad under pressure all the time. i remember when in school i'd fail under pressure, and when i trade stocks i fail too, same as playing games when it becomes important. some people excell when the moment is important... not me i guess, i get crappier

[Shoryu Magami]

@Luna_Maria
Whether I excel or fail is usually dependant on how multitasked/distracted my mind is, not the importance of the situation. Nevertheless, pressure is a big problem that's fairly common, so it's not something to feel bad about.

[Luna_Maria]

OK
thanks for telling me that it's fairly common. it helps me a lot

[BrokenPromise]

I had a pretty good idea it was Luna since the end of the first round. They were just working a little too hard to appear innocent. also, anyone who votes off spider man is pretty darn suspicious.

Admittedly if I was witch cat, I probably would have voted Pudding in the last round. The murderer has no reason to vote first. If pudding actually had voted off the person who voted first, the only way to ensure victory would have been if pudding was the murderer. *shrugs* anyway...

Good show scrubs!



(I puke in my mouth every time I use a screen cap from DR 3)

So without further ado, let's move on to...

THE META

You guys are aware there's a meta right?



Well there is. and it is GLORIOUS! It turns this game of statistics into one of strategy, observation, and deception. But enough flair, let's start the class.

FIRST... HOW TO WIN

You win by finding and executing the murderer. Or werewolf, in some instances. In order to do that, you need to work together with your fellow innocent to overpower the killer. Yes, in a game about trust, you need to pick the correct friends. Remember my statistics on the other page?

The killer has about a 14% chance of getting punished the first round (1 out of 7 outcomes)

The second round the killer has a 20% chance of getting punished. (1 out of 5 outcomes) If we look at their chances of being punished both rounds, it's closer to 31% (11 out of 35 outcomes)

The third round the killer has a 25% chance of getting punished in the final round. This has to do with how things are run. barring that and going by pure statistics (33%, 1 out of 3), there is just under a 46% chance the killer will be punished. (37 out of 85 outcomes)

BrokenPromise

Well, if you're going to have such a hard time picking the killer the first round... why not use the first round to pick some friends?

You have a 1 out of 6 chance of picking the killer (provided you AREN'T the killer obviously) as a friend. If you both survive until the third round, you have a 5 out of 6 chance of winning just by voting for the person that isn't your friend. That's a little bit better than 25% isn't it?

Now you're going to ask me how to prevent the killer from killing your friend off. Because they see EVERYTHING you say? RIGHT?

WRONG!

The master thread is used for voting, talking to everyone, and glorious shitposting shenanigans. You should most certainly take things to PM that you don't want everyone to hear. In fact, I dare say that most if not ALL of your player interactions should happen in Pms.

GOALS AND GAME FLOW

I'm not going to go into every strategy and random factoid. You guys can figure that all out on your own. I'm just going to explain what everyone should be doing as the rounds progress.

Round 1

This is not the throwaway round everyone thinks it is. This round is an opportune time to make friends. Your chances of recruiting the killer to your cause increases in the later rounds. If you decide to recruit 2 friends, you have a 33% chance of harboring the killer. Second round 2 friends is 50%, so watch that...

Of course, the killer should be trying to make friends as well. Friends don't vote on other friends, right?

Round 2

Now the second round is here. Things are more interesting now because the killer is killing people to cause distrust among friends or simply isolate individuals. This is not an ideal round for recruiting a lot of people to your friend circle, but if you're alone you have a 25% chance of picking the killer as a friend. The innocent are working with clues, and the murderer is trying to deflect blame onto others.

Round 3

This is actually the least important round in the meta, as things have already been decided. The murderer either has a trusting friend, or the innocents are both together. Even in the event that everyone is separated, they usually have the tools to make a choice at this point. It all boils down to who's more trustworthy.

TL;DR:

-Work as a team, not as individuals

-Converse via pm with your team, potential team mates, victims, and potential killers to decide votes, set up traps, and spread misinformation.

Temptation is to give everyone tips and tricks, but I think I'll just hang back and see what you guys manage to come up with on your own. wouldn't want to spoon feed you everything. that's all for now.

[Shoryu Magami]

@BrokenPromise
Yeah, this is about what I was expecting to see once you told me it was the overall meta and not a winning strategy for one side or the other. Since it helps both sides - as you mentioned - I'm all on board with it being posted here, and - as stated previous - I'll be quoting it into my original post.

It's all stuff I was aware of, so I'm wondering how much you've seen of this game (like I said, it's a staple on my role-playing sites). I've been the host most of the time, never really the player outside of one time I did it for the laughs and played very casually, but due to my affinity for and tendency towards psychology and strategy the meta of this game was just common sense to me.

Most sites which have this game - that I've seen - seem to consider it an unspoken rule not to tell people how to actually play, so they need to work the meta out on their own, but I've allowed it because it could make things interesting to see if it has an impact on how people play from this point. I never actually said anything in the rules about people not being allowed to use the PM system, and that was meant to be the subtle hint that you were allowed to do this sort of thing (@Luna_Maria actually tried it in the first game).

Granted, the whole concept of friendships can get convoluted if the murderer plays multiple people as a friend, or if people end up making more than one friend and subsequently get forced to pick between them, but in general the meta works at least in principle. We've also had a few instances so far in this game where someone not voting for someone - with the basis being that they were on friendly terms - actually allowed the murderer to get off free. It's all just part of the deception game though.

Overall, yeah, Luna's acting at the end of the first round were too clean, and most of the antics that were present in previous games more or less disappeared during this one -- though I'll emphasize that this could've been due to them not wanting to get eliminated too early again, it's still a fact.

Edit: Added into the opening post -- I had to make an alteration to prevent a quote-in-quote error.

[BrokenPromise]

Honestly, I've always seen the suggestion to use the PM section in the first post. It is more interesting to watch interactions without it, as a spectator anyway.

Having a friend and/or selectively sharing information is just a very powerful tool. I also find that deciding how many friends you want to have is part of the strategy. You have more control with more friends, But it's easier to harbor a killer in later rounds. There are all kinds of games you can play with this strategy.

[Shoryu Magami]

@BrokenPromise
In all fairness, I've been hosting the game on most sites that I witnessed it on, but during the rare exceptions I don't recall the PM suggestion being listed. I don't usually list it myself because - as you just said - it's less entertaining for watchers (who could be potential players if they like what they see) when all of the back and forth happens secretly -- isn't too fun when you're not seeing half the game.

Overall, I agree it definitely increases the number of strategies -- that's why I've been on board with it coming into play now that we've had a few 'practice rounds' - I suppose - to familiarize people with the game if they haven't seen it. I don't mind it, since it could allow the game to go in directions I don't usually get to see too often, though I did - right from the beginning - tell people I wanted them to be psychological and clever about this.

[BrokenPromise]

...isn't too fun when you're not seeing half the game.

@Shoryu Magami

Well if you're ever so bored that you want to participate, just give me a holler. I can hold the fort if you want to frolic with everyone else, m'kay?

[Pudding]

Well if you're ever so bored that you want to participate, just give me a holler. I can hold the fort if you want to frolic with everyone else, m'kay?

@BrokenPromise

*Both Murderer and Innocents are killed*

[Shoryu Magami]

@BrokenPromise
I'll keep that in mind, though the statement was more from the perspective of outside watchers.

@Pudding
Who said I don't take the murderer's soul off to Hell at the end of each game, hmmm?

[carla6677]

@Shoryu Magami I would love to host the game one time, I remember people can ask

[Shoryu Magami]

@carla6677
While I don't currently have any interest in participating directly - mostly because this is a game I find more entertaining to observe from a social experiment perspective - there's no inherent problem with someone else hosting even if I don't be a player, so if you're asking to host this next game then I'm fine with it. Confirm it here and I'll make the needed alterations to my post.

[carla6677]

@Shoryu Magami I would love to

[BrokenPromise]

<Snipped quote by BrokenPromise>
*Both Murderer and Innocents are killed*

@Pudding

Just Danganronpa Things

"Okay Mr murderer, here's how this is going to work. We're going to make this pen disappear. Or 'des-pair' as I like to say. You will have died before the game actually began, the secret 8th member that always gets the game started. Then I will continue killing on your behalf. This seems to satisfy all conditions. Phuphuphuphu!"

WHAT A TWIIIIIIIST!