Russia in Crimea

[Omega]

Putin's actions in Ukraine have increased his approval rating as high as 70+% in opinion polls in Russia and political analysts are saying even if forced to withdraw will come out winning domestically for showing interest in protectin Russian speakers against Westerners.

[Zacharius]

Points about self representation aside, the issue is evidently far beyond 'more Russians live here, so this bit should be Russian,' because the loss of the Crimea would be a huge blow to the general national economy, and its ability to remain independent from Russia, that said, it's still unfair to discount the views of the Pro-Russians just because they're inconvenient for the pro-west faction.

Complex stuff man, this politics.

[Dinh AaronMk]

Excuse me, just waiting for the second Charge of the Light Brigade.

[The Nexerus]

Omega said
Putin's actions in Ukraine have increased his approval rating as high as 70+% in opinion polls in Russia and political analysts are saying even if forced to withdraw will come out winning domestically for showing interest in protectin Russian speakers against Westerners.

Opinion polls in Russia would be giving good news about Putin if he spent all day on the top of a building in Moscow pissing down onto the street while singing "Shche ne vmerla Ukraina".

HeySeuss said
Some of the better coverage on this is coming out of the Jerusalem Post and Haaretz, which has a very different stake in this situation, as well as better sources than most media outlets.tl;dr: The Western Ukrainian government aren't saints either.

I imagine all they have to talk about is how Svoboda and the Right Sector are Nazis.

[HeySeuss]

Well, the JPost and Haaretz aren't precisely pro-Putin either -- he's not exactly warm and fuzzy to Jews himself. But Western Ukrainian extremists seem hellbent on blaming Jews and vandalizing synagogues. I wonder how Kiev will look if significant numbers of Ukrainian Jews start making aliyah. If they have any sense whatsoever, they will want to stomp that shit fast, especially if they wish for any sort of US support whatsoever.

Basically, Kiev's dumb skinheads are a liability.

[The Nexerus]

HeySeuss said
Well, the JPost and Haaretz aren't precisely pro-Putin either -- he's not exactly warm and fuzzy to Jews himself. But Western Ukrainian extremists seem hellbent on blaming Jews and vandalizing synagogues. I wonder how Kiev will look if significant numbers of Ukrainian Jews start making aliyah. If they have any sense whatsoever, they will want to stomp that shit fast, especially if they wish for any sort of US support whatsoever.Basically, Kiev's dumb skinheads are a liability.

The number of Jews in Ukraine has been decreasing every single year since the 40's. After WWII, I imagine that almost all of those leaving Ukraine were either headed to the United States or Israel. There isn't a large enough Jewish community in Ukraine for mass emigration to even be a possibility any more; the population is so small that even if every Jew left Ukraine, there wouldn't be enough people leaving for it to be considered significant.

Are Kiev's 'skinheads' a liability? Sure. But not a large enough liability for the organizations behind the revolution to say anything nasty about what compromises a significant portion of their supporters.

[HeySeuss]

Not pissing off AIPAC is important for countries that want more out of the US than expressed sympathy and well-wishes. Alienating the skinheads? Whatever, but more likely they're being encouraged to yank that leash. Besides, same skinheads also are anti-Russian and their actions help give validity to some of Putin's platform.

But if 67,000 Jews pick up sticks these days, it'll make huge news. Two thousand or so have done so in France and it's page 2 news in the WaPo. In the current environment, it would give further credibility to Putin while diminishing US support. That may be speculative, but it is also speculation rooted in the power of AIPAC and J-Street and other lobbies of that nature.

[The Nexerus]

HeySeuss said
Not pissing off AIPAC is important for countries that want more out of the US than expressed sympathy and well-wishes. Alienating the skinheads? Whatever, but more likely they're being encouraged to yank that leash. Besides, same skinheads also are anti-Russian and their actions help give validity to some of Putin's platform.But if 67,000 Jews pick up sticks these days, it'll make huge news. Two thousand or so have done so in France and it's page 2 news in the WaPo. In the current environment, it would give further credibility to Putin while diminishing US support. That may be speculative, but it is also speculation rooted in the power of AIPAC and J-Street and other lobbies of that nature.

I don't see how Jewish exodus to Israel is an anti-Israeli policy.

[ActRaiserTheReturned]

Vilkommen to der 1980's!



Edit-
Not spamming. Just pointing fun at the Cold War.

[Pfroggy1]

I think Putin wants to recreate the Soviet Bloc. I've been observing his political ideals and his ideals are very much like how the Soviet leaders led. Hey when he wins reelection he almost always kills those trying to run for office against him. He has a lot of Communist ideals.

In relating news, I saw Obama has basically set up an embargo with Russia and that all trade and business talks have been canceled.

[ActRaiserTheReturned]

Pfroggy1 said
I think Putin wants to recreate the Soviet Bloc. I've been observing his political ideals and his ideals are very much like how the Soviet leaders led. Hey when he wins reelection he almost always kills those trying to run for office against him. He has a lot of Communist ideals.In relating news, I saw Obama has basically set up an embargo with Russia and that all trade and business talks have been canceled.

Well Crymea River!

[Dinh AaronMk]

ActRaiserTheReturned said
Well Crymea River!

I'll need to remember this pun.

[Jannah]

Pfroggy1 said
I think Putin wants to recreate the Soviet Bloc. I've been observing his political ideals and his ideals are very much like how the Soviet leaders led. Hey when he wins reelection he almost always kills those trying to run for office against him. He has a lot of Communist ideals.In relating news, I saw Obama has basically set up an embargo with Russia and that all trade and business talks have been canceled.

lolno.

Sorry, but you don't seem to know much about Putin.

[Pepperm1nts]

This is what happens when the west does whatever the hell it wants unopposed (politically or otherwise); the east figures out it can do it too, with enough power. That and also the fact that Putin knows our "red lines" can be crossed and stepped on all day and not a damn thing will happen, after Syria.

Still, I hope it doesn't escalate into real war.

[Serpentine88]

I don't usually look at the off-topic section let alone post (This I think being my first time ever in like 4 years of the guild) however I have been looking a lot at the Crimean/Ukrainian situation and decided to say something I guess.

---

I would say this is typical realpolitik positioning by both sides. the Ukrainian people revolted against a corrupt government (yes there is an alarming presence of far-right extremists, but most seem to be the usual bunch of people), Putin got pissed that his naval base and sphere of influence was in danger so moved forward, the EU-US jumped on board to get as much advantage out of the situation as possible (Alternatively, to make sure Putin gets the least out of this as possible).

From my point of view, this is a internal civil matter concerning the Ukrainian economy and people that has been hijacked by both sides to continue the usual Eurasian Geopolitical Strategy (Before UK vs Russian Empire, now US and EU vs Russia and China). I don't think it'll lead to WW3, Thermo-nuclear war or anything like that(Unless everyone goes crazy and China decides to join in). It could lead to a second cold war(If you don't think its already started), though I personally think it'll take a few more twists for that to actually happen.

Worst Case Scenario: Russia either decides to go full on and calls bluff on Obama's sanctions (red line, etc) or a third party that has no idea what its doing (West Ukrainian/Right Sector/etc, etc etc or East Ukrainian pro-Russians) does something and Putin (Or even Ukraine, which is starting to get a little jumpy) uses it as an excuse to engage.

Best Case Scenario: The conflict stops here and either the EU or China mediates something. It is unlikely to return to status quo, I think we've gone past that point.

Most Likely Scenario(OPINION): Putin continue's to hold East Ukraine.

---

I know my opinion is just that, an opinion, and I say that because I know taking this view of any political situation is generally considered bad. I apologize for being cynical and probably wont say much more (if anything at all), I actually sat here for a while contemplating if I should even post this opinion.

Thank you and stuff! *Runs back to NRPing*

[Aristocles]

I'd say this is a move by an increasingly desperate Putin who thinks that by seizing Crimea, he can distract people from a slowing economy at home at the same time he wishes to rebuild a fraction of "soviet glory." He's also upset that he lost a major ally in Ukraine's ousted president.

[Captain Jordan]

Aristocles said
I'd say this is a move by an increasingly desperate Putin who thinks that by seizing Crimea, he can distract people from a slowing economy at home at the same time he wishes to rebuild a fraction of "soviet glory." He's also upset that he lost a major ally in Ukraine's ousted president.

It's interesting that you say this. I read a Forbes analysis yesterday which discussed some of the economic repercussions of this incursion, mostly as political retribution by the West, which could threaten the Russian economy more severely than it is now.

It also examined how crucial the warm water naval port is to Russia's position as a global power. Take away Crimea (where Russia currently leases the naval base in Sevastapof) and you have a military power without timely sea access to Europe, Asia Minor and North Africa. The Russian fleet wouldn't be much of a threat if you could spot it coming your way all the way from Gibraltar.

[AlienBastard]

Pfroggy1 said
I think Putin wants to recreate the Soviet Bloc. I've been observing his political ideals and his ideals are very much like how the Soviet leaders led. Hey when he wins reelection he almost always kills those trying to run for office against him. He has a lot of Communist ideals.In relating news, I saw Obama has basically set up an embargo with Russia and that all trade and business talks have been canceled.

I don't think he is going to want Communism. If he is trying to make a CIS, chances are it will be much more right wing than left.

[Captain Jordan]

AlienBastard said
I don't think he is going to want Communism. If he is trying to make a CIS, chances are it will be much more right wing than left.

I don't think Communism has been left wing since the 19th century.

[AlienBastard]

I think communism may not be what he will go for since from my understanding Putin's being trying to snuggle up with the Orthodox priests,

In a totally non-gay way, of course.