Russia in Crimea

[HeySeuss]

AlienBastard said
I think communism may not be what he will go for since from my understanding Putin's being trying to snuggle up with the Orthodox priests,In a totally non-gay way, of course.

Bingo, you said it so I don't have to. It's an authoritarian government (some totalitarian leanings when it comes to nationalism and violence against gays) with some very traditionalist elements to it.

[Jannah]

AlienBastard said
I don't think he is going to want Communism. If he is trying to make a CIS, chances are it will be much more right wing than left.

Yea, he's definitely not a communist. He's very right-wing. His domestic policies show that.

[Dinh AaronMk]

Captain Jordan said
It's interesting that you say this. I read a Forbes analysis yesterday which discussed some of the economic repercussions of this incursion, mostly as political retribution by the West, which could threaten the Russian economy more severely than it is now.

I'd need to track it down but I've been hearing Putin's popularity shot up in the 70% range in Russia. I think the basic idea is that he's showing a strong hand in "protecting Russians from the West".

[Omega]

Dinh AaronMk said
I'd need to track it down but I've been hearing Putin's popularity shot up in the 70% range in Russia. I think the basic idea is that he's showing a strong hand in "protecting Russians from the West".

It's been all over Russian news. Russian nationalists are still a big voting bloc in Russia, and by his current actions he is looking to control a direct line through Ukraine now into Eastern Europe now which would give Russia a bigger edge in gas exports which increased his popularity with businessmen in Russia as well. He is playing up the angle of protecting Russians speakers, ethnic Russians, and Russian Orthodox which is going over very well.

[Dinh AaronMk]

I got to butt in and say I like this conversation on Ukraine and the Crimea better than others I've looked into. For the most part, those have always seemed to take a socialist/communist perspective and made the whole ordeal into a battle against Fascism.

It would have been a legitimate perspective if the whole forum there wasn't populated by wanna-be Communists who get mad that statues of Lenin were toppled. Never mind he's no longer just a symbol of communism anymore. He's a symbol of Russia now.

[Jannah]

Dinh AaronMk said
I got to butt in and say I like this conversation on Ukraine and the Crimea better than others I've looked into. For the most part, those have always seemed to take a socialist/communist perspective and made the whole ordeal into a battle against Fascism.It would have been a legitimate perspective if the whole forum there wasn't populated by wanna-be Communists who get mad that statues of Lenin were toppled. Never mind he's no longer just a symbol of communism anymore. He's a symbol of Russia now.

Svoboda is an openly fascist party though so a lot of this is about fascism. Also, it's not even only Lenin statues being torn down, but anything to do with Russia in general.

[Pepschep]

Naturally Russia is not happy with the turnout of the Ukrainian revolution. The way it sees it, a violent nationalist opposition overthrew the pro-Russian majority elected President of their close neighbor and ally. As a result a significant (ethnically and politically Russian) segment of the Ukrainian population now finds itself without due representation in government. In response Crimea, a historically and ethnically Russian region, declared autonomy from the "usurper" government in Kiev. A new government that through both action and rhetoric has shown that it is both volatile and not opposed to using violence to silence its pro-Russian opposition, something that they themselves condemned when it suited them. The Crimean administration has requested Russian troops stationed in Ukraine for protection from an otherwise likely attempts by the Kiev government to violently put down the Crimean revolt until the situation stabilizes.

Putin isn't "on the wrong side of history", he's doing his duty as President of Russia: Protecting the Russian people. If the Russians in Crimea are threatened by the new government and ultranationalist thugs alike, you can not Russia to wait until it's too late to intervene. Neither side wants a war, Russia is being very watchful of what it does and is not out to annex the any or all of Crimea/Eastern Ukraine/Ukraine. The Russians are preventing the new "Democratic" government from silencing the Pro-Russian opposition by force so that it actually has to negotite with a group of people that wants changes Kiev doesn't like.

[HeySeuss]

Russia's got jackbooted thug assholes too. It's not exactly a good versus evil thing going on there. I just hope the Ukrainian government aspires to be better than Putin. So far, they've showed considerable restraint and have been playing the PR game well.

[Pepschep]

Oh, yes. The Russian nationalist camp is just scary. And I share your hope. But what I'm trying to say is that we shouldn't rush to say Russia is the pure evil in this. I try to look at both sides and keep an open mind, but people will always try and put things in it. All in all, I hope there's no unnecessary bloodshed anywhere.

[gamer5]

There are many things to consider in this game of politics.

1. The territorial intregrity of Ukraine
2. The closness of Crimea and Russia to EU and NATO members.
3. The gas pipes passing trough Ukraine which keep Europe warm during winter providing over 30% of all gas coming into Europe.
4. How much do EU or NATO want to back up Ukraine.

Considering all there this I think that EU and NATO will not allow Russia to take Crimea - EU cause it endagers both point 1 and 3 which are important as EU probably plans to add Ukraine in itself with time; NATO will probably be more reserved but Russia on the Crimea would be a bed strategical sitation - due to that allowing the Russian Black Sea fleet to endanger key instalations in Turkey and Greece. Both arleady stated with recaling diplomats, treathing with embargos after which comes starting embargos and then probably a threat of military intervention. If an epic fail or mistake happens and it goes hot, than Russia stands no chance due to the outdated techs that it has and far less manpower to call to arms then NATO and EU.

But in the end it all lays on how far are NATO and EU ready to go in squising Russia out of the peninsula.

[mdk]

Dutchbag said
Oh, yes. The Russian nationalist camp is just scary. And I share your hope. But what I'm trying to say is that we shouldn't rush to say Russia is the pure evil in this. I try to look at both sides and keep an open mind, but people will always try and put things in it. All in all, I hope there's no unnecessary bloodshed anywhere.

If you follow the money it starts to look bad for Russia. Ukraine's growing oil production has the potential to reduce their dependence on Russian imports, which isn't cool with Putin.

[HeySeuss]

mdk said
it starts to look bad for Russia. has the potential to reduce their dependence on Russian imports, which with Putin.

Chevron signed a deal to drill frack shale fields in Western Ukraine a couple weeks before Yanukovych repudiated that EU deal and started the protests. I doubt it's a coincidence, nor that the Ukraine has shale fields in the East, primarily a Russian-speaking area, either.

[Jester]

Today in Crimea:

• U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry was the star of the show, but got very little diplomacy done.



• Both U.S. and EU committed to sending aid to Crimea in amounts of 1b and 15b respectively.



• There were doubts about the EU's promised aid.



• Putin seemed to backpedal somewhat, but it's nothing to hold your breath about.



• And the Ukraine beat the U.S. in soccer.

This concludes our evening report.

[Pepschep]

Interesting stuff, mdk. I know that the Moscow stock exchange dropped like...11%.

[Dinh AaronMk]

Crimean Tatars are begin targeted with scary-familiar symbols.

[Pepschep]

...Well then.

[Brovo]

HeySeuss said
Bingo, you said it so I don't have to. It's an authoritarian government (some totalitarian leanings when it comes to nationalism and violence against gays) with some very traditionalist elements to it.

He's taken a page out of the book of Facism. Make a scapegoat? Check. One national party? Check. Kill or imprison anyone who could stand in your way? Check. Inspire nationalist fervour based on race or culture? Check.

This is the basic setup for Empire. If we're lucky, he'll take Crimea and be done with it, snuggling up to his warm water port.

If not, well... Anyone got a nuclear bunker for me to chill in, by chance?

[Pepperm1nts]

Vice News has some really good coverage of Crimea. Five 'dispatches' so far.

Dispatch One

And according to their latest video (Dispatch Five), the Russians appear to be trying to actively provoke the Ukranian military. Apparently Russian troops jumped over the wall of a Ukranian airforce base with their weapons drawn, threatening to shoot after the Ukranians refused to give the base up.

Supposedly they've been doing similar things across Crimea, but they never take it too far. They go in trying to provoke the Ukranians, and then leave when they realize the Ukranians aren't falling for it. So my guess is they're trying to justify a more forceful takeover or something, and what better way to do that then to get the Ukranians to fire the first shot?

[HeySeuss]

Brovo said
He's taken a page out of the book of Facism. Make a scapegoat? Check. One national party? Check. Kill or imprison anyone who could stand in your way? Check. Inspire nationalist fervour based on race or culture? Check.This is the basic setup for Empire. If we're lucky, he'll take Crimea and be done with it, snuggling up to his warm water port.If not, well... Anyone got a nuclear bunker for me to chill in, by chance?

My experience of political chat, from the HuffPo to IRC (not our IRC -- like hardcore old school IRC where the real freakos live) is to dance around the F-word. ;) But yes, that is more or less what he's gravitating toward these days. The reason why I often find myself dancing around that word is the same reason the Russians use it as an epithet against everyone else while unwittingly satisfying the requirements in many ways; it's a dirty word and it inevitably leads to people conflating fascism with skinheads, and a general derailment of the argument from there on out.

Incidentally, it's still an insult in the Russian language.

[Warrior in the Shadows]

I know people are all freaking out about Russian troops in Crimea, but Russia actually has a 25,000 troop limit in Crimea.
Here it is