Russia in Crimea

[Captain Jordan]

Warrior in the Shadows said
I know people are all freaking out about Russian troops in Crimea, but Russia actually has a 25,000 troop limit in Crimea.

Except the problem is that Russia, as per their numerous treaties with Ukraine, isn't supposed to perform any major troop movements in Crimea without the Ukrainian government's approval. There was none.

Also the fact that Russia, along with the UK and US, signed a treaty in which they pledged to honor and defend Ukraine's territorial integrity.

Russia's using the new government in Kiev, the Russian population of Crimea and the approval of the Russian parliament as justification for their actions. Yet their justification isn't passing muster in the international court of public opinion.

[ApocalypticaGM]

Pepperm1nts said
Vice News has some really good coverage of Crimea. Five 'dispatches' so far.And according to their latest video (Dispatch Five), the Russians appear to be trying to actively provoke the Ukranian military. Apparently Russian troops jumped over the wall of a Ukranian airforce base with their weapons drawn, threatening to shoot after the Ukranians refused to give the base up. Supposedly they've been doing similar things across Crimea, but they never take it too far. They go in trying to provoke the Ukranians, and then leave when they realize the Ukranians aren't falling for it. So my guess is they're trying to justify a more forceful takeover or something, and what better way to do that then to get the Ukranians to fire the first shot?

Just to throw in too. Vice has a few interesting articles worth looking into in regards to Russia/Ukraine. I particularly enjoyed this relating to the second world war era troubles in the region and the struggle between Fascist and Communist powers. It's very interesting to see how they've been caught in this, frankly, shitty corner with constant pressure. While I realize nearly eighty years have passed, the attitudes, struggles, and symbols behind the modern day's conflict still persist in ways. Anyway, check it out!

[Brovo]

ShonHarris said
Just to throw in too. Vice has a few interesting articles worth looking into in regards to Russia/Ukraine. I particularly enjoyed relating to the second world war era troubles in the region and the struggle between Fascist and Communist powers. It's very interesting to see how they've been caught in this, frankly, shitty corner with constant pressure. While I realize nearly eighty years have passed, the attitudes, struggles, and symbols behind the modern day's conflict still persist in ways. Anyway, check it out!

"Blood is thicker than any paper, and stains the world's history books." -Anonymous.

[Omega]

Crimea has now voted to secede from Ukraine and join Russia with 93% being the currently polled number. Aseemingly impossible number but given that the Tatar community has declared they will boycot the vote generally stating they hate both groups and various non-Ukrainian non-Russian minorities supporting Russia it is actually not surprising given the polling places quickly became locations of Pro-Russian fervor and there have been more than a few clashes throughout Ukraine between supporters of either side so Pro-Ukrainian turnout was likely extremely low.

US and Uk have declared they will begin freezing assets and suspending travel VISA's though have backed down from their early hardline saying they will start with low ranking official so they have somewhere to escalate to. On Monday various EU leaders will hold a meeting to see if the EU will follow through on sanctions as well.

[Pepschep]

I do not know who the idiot in the Western Military District was who ran the numbers on that Crimean referendum, but he just blew Russia's case for annexing the Crimea out of the water. 93% in favour with an apparent 75% turnout just do not add up. Add that to ballot box stuffing, Russians from the RF moving over to vote without Ukrainian citizenship, minors voting, an effective ban on pro-Ukrainian campaigning....Gah. I did not in any case expect this to be bullshit-free, but this is beyond ridiculous.

What's actually eating away at my conscience is how Russia now has lost every façade of legitimacy. Again, anyone with half a brain knows those numbers just do not add up. If Russia bothered to let something international and unbiased in and generally bothered to hold a proper referendum and enforced logical electoral laws (Adults living on the Crimea only voting to begin with) they'd probably still get a 55% majority. But most of all: They'd have a legitimate case. The west could no longer just look away and yell it's an unlawful referendum, but they'd have to accept a majority of the Crimea's residents want to accede to the Russian Federation. But no, they'd have to do this rushed piece of shit. Personally, I don't know what to think. I'm personally of the opinion that a majority does want to join Russia, but this was just a shitshow.

[mdk]

There have been reports over the last couple days of Ukranian nationalists (and/or *not* Russian nationalists) leaving Crimea en masse for the north.

[Captain Jordan]

mdk said
There have been reports over the last couple days of Ukranian nationalists (and/or *not* Russian nationalists) leaving Crimea en masse for the north.

Considering how the Russian population is starting to treat the Tartars, I'm not surprised. There's probably a lot of racial tension right now.

[Foster]

Brovo said This is the basic setup for Empire. If we're lucky, he'll take Crimea and be done with it, snuggling up to his warm water port.If not, well... Anyone got a nuclear bunker for me to chill in, by chance?

Incidentally, these are the sorts of moments the BSA unwittingly trains for.
-144 hours of hell on Earth. Fallout.

[Omega]

After various meetings with Tatar leaders and Putin most ethnic Tatars now support Crimea's action to join Russia.

The US and EU have initiated sanctions on a handful of Russian and Ukrainian officials. The Russian lower house has asked that the US and EU extend those sanctions to all of it's members while Russia promises retaliation.

[Jannah]

Omega said
After various meetings with Tatar leaders and Putin most ethnic Tatars now support Crimea's action to join Russia.The US and EU have initiated sanctions on a handful of Russian and Ukrainian officials. The Russian lower house has asked that the US and EU extend those sanctions to all of it's members while Russia promises retaliation.

America should just stay out of this. It's not their fight.

[Captain Jordan]

Jannah said
America should just stay out of this. It's not their fight.

On the other side of the argument, can America afford to stand by and do nothing while Russia carves into Ukraine, which is an ally of the West and a potential EU state? Should America fail to uphold its part of the treaties it signed to defend Ukraine's territorial integrity?

[Pepperm1nts]

Not to mention the US has the power to discourage Russian aggression through sanctions that can negatively affect Russia in a significant manner. The EU does too, but it helps if the US joins in.

Anyway, supposedly Russian airborne units took over the village of Strilkove and occupied a nearby natural gas plant. Strilkove is outside of Crimea.

[Jannah]

Captain Jordan said
On the other side of the argument, can America afford to stand by and do nothing while Russia carves into Ukraine, which is an ally of the West and a potential EU state? Should America fail to uphold its part of the treaties it signed to defend Ukraine's territorial integrity?

But Crimea is not Ukrainian territory, it never was(it was in fact relocated there back in the 1960's). They made their intentions clear too.

[mdk]

There's a lot to be said for a forward-leaning posture. If we back out of everywhere, we leave the door open for *exactly* *this* *situation*.

That said, I'm not sure what we gain by jumping in now. If we were doing our job, this never would have happened in the first place; compounding that failure by galloping into a skirmish with Russia seems like a poor solution.

[Omega]

Markets continue to favor Russia winning this outcome with markets closing on the 17th with Russian stocks having gained another 2%.

A phrase being referenced now is, "buy on the sound of gunfire."

[The Nexerus]

Jannah said
But Crimea is not Ukrainian territory, it never was(it was in fact relocated there back in the 1960's). They made their intentions clear too.

Crimea became part of Ukraine before Alaska became a state.

Omega said
After various meetings with Tatar leaders and Putin most ethnic Tatars now support Crimea's action to join Russia.

Oh really? Is that the case? The Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People would disagree. Incidentally, the correct way to word the last part of that sentence would be, "Russia's action to incorporate Crimea".

Omega said
Markets continue to favor Russia winning this outcome with markets closing on the 17th with Russian stocks having gained another 2%.A phrase being referenced now is, "buy on the sound of gunfire."

That seems to conflict with the Moscow Times' assessment. But then again, the Moscow Times is probably just a western propaganda machine, spreading lies about the Dear Leader and His Glorious Leadership of Russia.

[Jannah]

The Nexerus said
Crimea became part of Ukraine before Alaska became a state.

But the majority want to be part of Russia, therefore the west is in no position to impose sanctions over this. If I was Crimean I'd certainly favour Russia over Ukraine's Neo-Nazi coup, although frankly both options are pretty shitty.

[Pepperm1nts]

It doesn't matter if the majority wants to be Russian. The referendum was a joke and borderline illegal. This isn't how these things work.

[Jannah]

Pepperm1nts said
It doesn't matter if the majority wants to be Russian. The referendum was a joke and borderline illegal. This isn't how these things work.

It's not like the US hasn't ever done anything illegal...

[Dinh AaronMk]

Pepperm1nts said
It doesn't matter if the majority wants to be Russian. The referendum was a joke and borderline illegal. This isn't how these things work.

And the pro-Russian announcement is pretty highly skewed to the Russian favor. The end poll count puts more people favoring Russia than there are ethnic Russians. Demographically, Ukrainians wouldn't like it and the Ethnic Tatars boycotted the vote (and based on their historical relationship with Russia would vote "no").