[OOC] [GUTS+] You Awake in a Dark Room

[Vertigo]

Yush, I'll have a quick post with another kick up during lunch break tomorrow! (Past midnight right now so I should really be in bed orz).

[Vertigo]

So, hrm, he got 1 and 4. This door is his new archnemesis omg.

Though rereading the part on multiple dice made me wonder... If a success is a roll of 4 or more, but it's not enough that one roll of many passes that threshold, doesn't having multiple dice make it even more difficult to succeed? Since it's more difficult to get a number above 3 two times in a row than only once. Getting above 3 once is a 50% chance, but doing it twice in a row is 25%. There is a chance that two of the numbers are the same, which gives you that bonus you mentioned, but it's still easier to get above 3 on a singular roll.

Then again, since 3 is a near success, if you got 3 and 4 and that counted as a success, it would bump the odds up a bit. Getting above 2 twice in a row would be a 44% chance (66% on a singular die). Closer to the 50%, but not quite. And that would get even more difficult the more die we add. Though, if we add more die, the chance of doubles also raises. Double 1's don't count, but since double 2 and 3 do, that helps with the odds. I'm not sure whether that totals up to better chance of success than the original 50% of one die though. If it does... Is it just 2 dice specifically that faces this problem?

Admittedly I might have misunderstood something. Also, I do have rotten luck, ha, and I'm also not trying to wiggle out of a bad roll or anything! Bad rolls are usually where the fun happens. Just it made me curious as to how the odds worked. For example, if I'd only had 1 die to roll in this instance, and I would've gotten the 2 that I rolled at first, aka failed - - then I could've tried again, and gotten the 5 I rolled right after, would that have been a success? Technically, wouldn't Pebs have a better chance at the door, since she only has to roll above 3 once?

Or am I totally off base? Either way, err, sorry for the long explanation, just trying to wrack my own brain as I go since I'm not an expert on probability, heh.

[Typical]

Oooo assisting is a thing, and it’s half the number of dice rounded up so I can have Pebs tack another dice roll on (though I’m not too sure about my luck after that 6 last time lol) but hey maybe we’ll be able to get a double.

You think I should just throw one @Vertigo?

//edit: as a side note, I do agree that the system seems a little skewed towards the middle/not success for my liking. Mostly, I don’t like that even a level 6 gumption can fail at a basic check if they roll poorly. I feel like certain actions should be a no brainer (ie a 6’6” basketball player breaking down a hollow-core door. If execution and everything is correct, I feel like Duncan should definitely succeed unless there’s something otherwise enforcing the door or something.) I have little to no idea how you’d fix the current system as it is, but those are my concerns.

I suppose this is where I ask: for this system, if someone rolls all 1’s / failure, do you make up a situation as it comes, or do you have situations planned ahead of time? Like in this case, if Duncan definitely failed, would that situation/condition that led to his failure be somewhat planned ahead of time? @Alamantus

[Typical]

//edit: Ignore this, quoted my own post. I hate writing on mobile.

[Alamantus]

@Typical @Vertigo, sorry this got kinda long!

So GUTS+ does heavily rely on GM interpretation, but GMs are also encouraged to 1) favor the characters, 2) only ask for rolls on things that could have consequences, and 3) take the situation and the characters into consideration when interpreting. Also, more amorphously, the interpretation is not the average value of all the dice.

So in Duncan's case right now, he's trying to kick open a door that opens inward by kicking near the door's latch, i.e. the solid outer frame of the door. In my reasoning, even as a strong basketball player, it would take a miracle to break the sturdy door frame (by which I mean the piece that the door's hinges are connected to and has a lip that prevents the door from opening regularly) and let the door swing outward when the door is designed to open inward. Instead of simply saying it is impossible (which it's not—if super lucky, he could break the knob/latch mechanism or if he used another method, i.e. kicking the middle of the door that's hollow or ramming through that hollow section), I asked for a roll because there's a possibility that if he rolls low, his kick could land wrong and give him a minor injury on his foot. I probably should have communicated the low possibility a little bit more clearly... If Duncan has only 1 Gumption, he would not have been given a roll if he tried to kick the door that way, but his 2 Gumption gave him a slightly higher than 0 chance at getting lucky.

The outcomes, positive or negative, depend on what's being done. Since GMs can't plan for everything, like this situation, I had to think of what could happen. If something truly comes out of left field, the negative impact is often a negative Status Effect, for example "Duncan kept trying to kick the door open the same way, but beyond bending the door handle up, he just gets frustrated. Duncan gets the Frustrated status, which reduces the value of any one die rolled for Thought rolls by 1." Or something like that.

As for the number of dice thing, here's where the "not an average" idea comes in: if someone's Gumption is 6 and they're trying to jump over a 10-foot gap over a ravine and they roll 1, 3, 4, 6, 6, 5, then that skews heavily toward success plus they get a double if they want to use it—or if that person was an expert long jump competitor, then it would be a Positive Impact because of the character and the situation. If that same character rolled all 1's and 2's, then the doubles might help them, but there's always a chance in life that you trip. If that same roll were applied to say moving a log out of the way of an entryway, it would most likely be a Positive Impact because the task is easier. As such, die rolls could be compared to divining interpretations, which is why players are also encouraged to reason with the GM and make arguments for success. For example, I've never personally tried to kick down a hollow-core door from the inside, but if you have and it's actually much easier to do than I think, then you can say so and argue for it! It's kind of a checks and balances thing when the result is gray.

I hope that all makes some kind of sense. I'm also not an expert in statistics, which is why I designed it with so much GM power. Rolling doubles was designed to help the odds a little bit and it gets more likely that you'll roll doubles the higher your level, but the GM interpreting outcomes and players arguing against interpretations they disagree with is still pretty important.

[Typical]

@Alamantus Totally fine. I'll take lengthy, thorough explanations over short and vague ones any day. Thanks for the explanation though, that clears things up (esp since I'm not doing any calcs for probability/statistics either. ew, math). Leaving room for a lot of GM decision is probably the right way to go with this system, considering sometimes things can go pretty wrong despite being all "right," but yeah I guess a 3-4 success is enough in most cases.

On the current door issue, in my head, Duncan busting down the door was always a no-brainer, and while yeah the latch probably wouldn't give since it's the wrong way 'round, the door would. That said, to help the whole situation along, I'm gonna have Pebs tack on a dice roll for Gumption. Fingers crossed and... 3. Well, since they're hitting the door itself this time, hopefully that works (or at least prevents injury. Honestly we should just roll again @Vertigo, after maybe searching the room. Feel free to write in Pebs helping however it works.)

[Typical]

// edit: I literally can't.

[Alamantus]

@Typical @Vertigo

Cool, so since Pebs' 3 didn't create a double with Duncan's 1 or 4, neither of those dice can be modified, but I will say that Duncan's roll is a Near Success because of Pebs' help. She'll explain the concept of the door and just say to kick closer to the middle.

[Vertigo]

Ah, yeah, I wasn't trying to argue for this specific scenario, no worries! I understand why he failed, both roll-wise and scenario-wise, and I don't mind it. I wouldn't even have minded an injury, which I did expect him to get even if he did succeed. Like said, failure makes things more interesting, and I think it's perfectly fair for a character with a 6 in a stat to fail sometimes - even D&D allows for highly skilled characters to fail; it's precisely that random chance that makes dice-based rps interesting.

The thing I was curious about was just the whole 2 dice vs 1 die ordeal that I noticed, since it seemed like one die would always have a higher chance of success (50%) than two dice (44%, even if we interpret numbers as low as 3 and 3 or 3 and 4 as successes). Therefore, it seemed like having 1 in a stat would be better than 2. However, you did just say that if someone has too low a stat, they might not even be allowed to roll for something at all. So then it seems more like a give and take deal? You aren't allowed to roll for some things if your stat is only 1-- but if your stat is 2, you're allowed to roll for more things, but your chances at success overall decrease somewhat.

That might balance out on higher numbers since the chance for doubles increases like you said. I think the 2v1 might be the only slightly skeewy one...? I wish I was better at math.

Anyway, tThe reason I brought it up wasn't to argue to get my rolls to succeed, or, well, to argue at all. I just noticed what I thought might be a discrepancy, so I wanted to bring it up in case you didn't know of it - or in case I had missed something you could correct me on, because I'm no expert on this. I like the system and am excited I get to be testing it, but that's precisely why I thought bringing a potential issue up would be valuable!

Also yeah, sorry for the rambles. I tend to, err, write a lot when I try to explain things >>'' So I definitely don't mind your long explanations either, ha. Pot, kettle.

As for the rp itself, I like how you reasoned the failure in particular - and how Pebs' roll factored in to help! Now, hmm, do you want to post next @Typical, or should I? I'm fine either way - and it should no longer take me a week to get back to you either, heh.

[Typical]

@Vertigo I’m fine either way, but I’ll get a post up before tomorrow for sure. I’m probably just gonna have Pebs derail continuing to kick holes in the door for rummaging through the cabinets.

[Alamantus]

The thing I was curious about was just the whole 2 dice vs 1 die ordeal that I noticed, since it seemed like one die would always have a higher chance of success (50%) than two dice (44%, even if we interpret numbers as low as 3 and 3 or 3 and 4 as successes). Therefore, it seemed like having 1 in a stat would be better than 2. However, you did just say that if someone has too low a stat, they might not even be allowed to roll for something at all. So then it seems more like a give and take deal? You aren't allowed to roll for some things if your stat is only 1-- but if your stat is 2, you're allowed to roll for more things, but your chances at success overall decrease somewhat.

That might balance out on higher numbers since the chance for doubles increases like you said. I think the 2v1 might be the only slightly skeewy one...?

@Vertigo

So the way I see getting around this issue is by understanding the levels of a quality as that person's experience/skill in that quality. This is less helpful for the GUTS stats than the custom ones, but conceptually the idea of being "better at" the thing could be helpful. So if a person with 1 Gumption tried to do that, they might give up more easily than someone with 2 Gumption. So what I meant by "not letting them roll" is that instead, upon receiving the suggestion "I kick the door" from a person with Gumption 1, I would say "Ok, your character kicks the door, but when it doesn't budge, they get tired from the effort and give up" or something like that. Your stats/qualities are also meant to tell who your character is in addition to how good they are at something, if that makes sense.

With that in mind, even if you rolled a 1 and a 6, that weighs more heavily toward success than failure and can provide more of a "flavor" of success ("you kicked the door, and while it didn't move, it dented in a little"), while a simple 1 or 6 is simply a result based on a low skill level ("you kicked the door successfully"). A 3 and a 6 weigh even more in the character's favor, and depending on the attempted action or character, the GM might simply take the 6 and ignore the 3. Having more dice gives the GM more to interpret with, which allows them to come up with the best outcome for the characters.

It is definitely super nebulous, though, so I do need to come up with a better way to explain the process... The original idea was that the GM themself takes away the skew problem when they can/need to.

[Alamantus]

Oh, btw, I also added a sentence about it being dark on the other side of the hole to my last IC post.

[Typical]

Alrighty, you now @Vertigo, no matter what Al says. Fingers crossed that paper isn’t blank though cuz then I just made Pebs look like an idiot.

[Vertigo]

Ack, sorry for the absence there! I should never make mention of having more time - I end up jinxing myself. Will get a post up today/tomorrow.

@Alamantus Gotcha! Thanks for being patient with me and explaining the system. I see now that I just didn't get the extent of influence the GM had, as opposed to the numbers. But that's why I wanted to ask and check!

@Typical Looks like it wasn't blank, thankfully! Though, heh, don't worry, Duncan has/will make himself look like an idiot multiple times over the course of this, I reckon.

Hmm, the paper looks like a hint - fishing up a key from the drain, perhaps? Or from somewhere else. Definitely looks like a hook meant to grab a key from some sort of a hole.

About the door, I wonder if we could try to reach a hand through the hole to see if we could open the door from that side (would it fit tho?) or if we have to just keep breaking it apart little by little?

If the door had been impossible to break I would've suggested we try the airvent above it, but since we got this far-!

[Typical]

@Vertigo Yep, the picture definitely looks like the characters are meant to fish something out of the drain in the room. Dunno where they'd get a hook and string, but one option is the wire Pebble pulled from the cabinet. Depending on how hard the metal parts are and how long the wire is, it might work, but then again if the drain's wet then it might ruin the wire.

Doorwise, yeah, Duncan's set to just try and open it. His foot fit, so his hand probably will (unless he's that misproportioned lol). I will say, though, that if something grabs him when he reaches his hand out, I'm gonna have an internal heart attack through the screen.

Airvent-wise, totally didn't think about that! Honestly the whole drain + airvent combo said 'serial killer's murder dungeon toned down' to me since, ya know, sleeping gas + drain for clean-up. Glad the door worked too haha

[Vertigo]

It could also be that it's not this drain we should be fishing something out from, could also be some place we find later on. That's a good point about the hook though, I don't think we have anything for that. Hmm...

Haha, oh man, I'd be both amused and terrified if something did grab him.

And yeah, when I read "large airvent above the door" I thought "Duncan could lift Pebs up to crawl through it to the other side probably". I didn't... oh god, I didn't even think about the serial killer scenario. Damn. That's a mental image.

Sorry for the wait btw, I was behind on posts and had to get to a few others I'd owed for longer outta the way. Gonna get to this tomorrow after work, finally!

[Vertigo]

Done and done! Let me know if him getting his hand through is implausible, and I'll edit accordingly (adding that he made the hole bigger first, or the like). I left it vague as to whether he could actually reach the handle at all also.

If he can reach it, should I roll for something to see if he can figure out how the door is locked?

[Typical]

Kinda-sorta realized I just liked Vertigo's comment when it clearly wasn't addressed at me, but eh, taking that back would be weird(er than commenting about it!). That aside, I'll be waiting on a post from you, @Alamantus, on the state of the door before I write a response for Pebs. Excited (and a bit apprehensive) to see where the hand through the door goes. Fingers crossed this stays all G-rated and easy on my heart.

//edit: Also, on a side note, do both of you use Discord?

[Vertigo]

Haha, all good. And ikr, here's crossing fingers.

I've got Discord at least. Would you guys want to set up a chat there or?

[Alamantus]

Sorry for the wait! It was a very busy weekend from Thursday on for me. I'll reply to everything within an hour or two!

Also, I do use Discord, too. Are you thinking it'd be better to keep in touch with, or as a disaster plan? @Typical