System

Myriad Reality

<Snipped quote by Disdain>

As I said, that falls under improbability.

<Snipped quote by System>

...

At that low, we could just let the two fight in person, which means we have a sixty-seven percent chance of defeating the victor if it's Azathoth, and a sixty-one percent chance if it's Nyarlathotep. Specifically, though, the casualties would be immeasurable throughout all of Existence. Those two don't fight like you or I would. And even then that's assuming that all of their followers of note are outright killed before their confrontation.

Otherwise... The only other option at that level that would increase our odds is to join one side outright, but then we're picking between two undesirable outcomes. We may as well just join Nyarlathotep and be done with it.

@Threads of Fate

We run out of options at ten percent. I see.

Myriad Reality

<Snipped quote by System>

Correct.

@Threads of Fate

At five percent?

Myriad Reality

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...
Hmm. If we lower it to ten percent... I suppose there is one other. If we got all of the replacement moderators... We'd have a fifty-four percent chance of victory, given the same variables as our forty-seven percent plausible chance.

@Threads of Fate

*Stares forward*
Fifty-four percent.

Myriad Reality

<Snipped quote by System>

If it is less than fifteen percent, I consider it implausible.

@Threads of Fate

*Nods and holds my hand to my face*
If we reduce the margin of implausibility, is there another scenario that increases our odds further?

Myriad Reality

<Snipped quote by System>

No plausible scenarios. There are theoretical ones, such as, say, a Codi with a sufficient power of negation being born. Or Nyarlathotep getting bored and deciding to stop on her own. Assuming she's genuine in her desires to take over Existence, there are none that I can see that give us even a fifty percent chance.

@Threads of Fate

What is the lower bound of probability before a scenario is implausible?

Myriad Reality

<Snipped quote by System>

The lowest and highest are what I'm focusing on right now. As good as I am, there is a headache when it comes to trying to come up with a scenario, then check it, then alter it, check it, ad nauseam. It's much easier to check for highs and lows.

@Threads of Fate

Are you implying that no scenario exists in concept that guarantees a victory?

Myriad Reality

<Snipped quote by System>

For the zero percent, it's the Codex all splitting to one of the sides or flat out joining Nyarlathotep. Both have reasonably low probabilities, but they exist. Beyond that, I feel like I've explained it already. I can repeat if you'd like.

@Threads of Fate

There are uncountable different possible scenarios, but I'd like to know how likely each must be for you to consider it.

Myriad Reality

<Snipped quote by System>

Could you be more specific? Overall, the worst we can face is a zero-percent chance in some circumstances I can't predict. The best is a forty-seven percent chance if we manage to not only stop the war from leaving the galaxy it's currently stuck in, but also have all of both sides wiped out and all of the most powerful undecideds join us.

@Threads of Fate

What factors have you accounted for to make your estimations?

Myriad Reality

...
Is this really the state of the Codex at this point?

Regardless. Our chances as they stand now are around two percent of defeating Nyarlathotep. If we free Azathoth, that chance raises to thirty. That's our best shot. There are unknown factors, such as the more powerful Codi still not aligned with either side, but those close to Azathoth would quickly rejoin her, and the battle between them and Nyarlathotep's closer allies would weaken both sides. Unfortunately, I won't be able to participate if we go this route, as I'll be preoccupied with preventing direct confrontation from the two. At best, if we can ally everyone not already on their sides, we have just under a fifty-fifty shot at victory. Those are our best odds, as they stand now. If we count the rest of our universe being dragged into this fight, that goes down significantly. To offset this, I invited Ma'at's mate; if he assists, we may be able to prevent the war from spreading. Though this is all to be said without the possibility of other universes joining with Nyarlathotep, or should we release her, Azathoth.

@Threads of Fate

What are the best and worst possible probabilities that we might face?

Myriad Reality

<Snipped quote by System>

Thanks, Mr. Insulted.

@Disdain

*Remains silent*