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Fetzen<Snipped quote by System>
Correct.
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Is reading probability all you can do?
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Is reading probability all you can do?
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From what I understand, it would require conquering Existence ourselves, then re-finding the Mammon Machine, finding whoever was the one to restore the NAN Sector's influence on Existence. All of which are effectively zero in and of themselves.
Then it's not worth considering.
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If you want the below one percent option, theoretically... If we gained enough of the mess of a System currently in place, we could use the Mechanisms of Existence in conjunction with the Mammon Machine... and we got the Administrator's help... We could trap Nyarlathotep using her own power and simply not free Azathoth. But that's not really an option, it's rather a dream within a dream within a dream.
What would that entail?
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As I said, that falls under improbability.
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At that low, we could just let the two fight in person, which means we have a sixty-seven percent chance of defeating the victor if it's Azathoth, and a sixty-one percent chance if it's Nyarlathotep. Specifically, though, the casualties would be immeasurable throughout all of Existence. Those two don't fight like you or I would. And even then that's assuming that all of their followers of note are outright killed before their confrontation.
Otherwise... The only other option at that level that would increase our odds is to join one side outright, but then we're picking between two undesirable outcomes. We may as well just join Nyarlathotep and be done with it.
We run out of options at ten percent. I see.
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Correct.
At five percent?
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Hmm. If we lower it to ten percent... I suppose there is one other. If we got all of the replacement moderators... We'd have a fifty-four percent chance of victory, given the same variables as our forty-seven percent plausible chance.
*Stares forward*
Fifty-four percent.
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If it is less than fifteen percent, I consider it implausible.
*Nods and holds my hand to my face*
If we reduce the margin of implausibility, is there another scenario that increases our odds further?
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No plausible scenarios. There are theoretical ones, such as, say, a Codi with a sufficient power of negation being born. Or Nyarlathotep getting bored and deciding to stop on her own. Assuming she's genuine in her desires to take over Existence, there are none that I can see that give us even a fifty percent chance.
What is the lower bound of probability before a scenario is implausible?
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The lowest and highest are what I'm focusing on right now. As good as I am, there is a headache when it comes to trying to come up with a scenario, then check it, then alter it, check it, ad nauseam. It's much easier to check for highs and lows.
Are you implying that no scenario exists in concept that guarantees a victory?
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For the zero percent, it's the Codex all splitting to one of the sides or flat out joining Nyarlathotep. Both have reasonably low probabilities, but they exist. Beyond that, I feel like I've explained it already. I can repeat if you'd like.
There are uncountable different possible scenarios, but I'd like to know how likely each must be for you to consider it.
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